Is global terrorism about to worsen?

Many people appear to believe so, in part because of terrorism financier Osama bin Laden’s grab for publicity of late with menacing, back-to-back videotapes.

Unfortunately, their fears are well-founded. The moment is indeed ripe for a potential expansion of terrorist murder and mayhem.

At the end of the Cold War, I had conversations with numerous domestic and foreign specialists in the areas of counter-terrorism and political violence, with the aim of developing a sense of direction for the emerging world order. I recently took another look at their admittedly dreary projections from 1992, which covered a period of a decade and a half, and found that the following 10 had proven substantially correct:

• Despite the hope for peace and prosperity, that will not be the reality of the decade ahead.

• Political violence will increase, not decrease, after the Cold War.

• The artificial constraints imposed by the East-West divide will disappear, providing those groups that are predisposed toward violence with innumerable opportunities.

• Accelerating globalization will benefit political extremists as much as, if not more than, the rest of society.

• The United States and its allies have no real sense of who the enemy is, now that the Soviet Union is gone.

• Adversaries of the United States and its allies suffer from no such uncertainty; they are developing their agendas and targets.

• People should prepare for anything, including bolder and more spectacular attacks against U.S. interests.

• Specifically in the area of aviation, terrorists easily could take their deadly creativity to the next level and use aircraft as weapons.

• The rapid de-emphasizing of the international as a result of an anticipated “peaceful” environment will leave society ill-equipped to deal with terrorist violence.

• The ranks of hard-core terrorists, their supporters and their sympathizers will swell.

Those results inspired me to repeat the exercise in recent weeks, with any eye toward the 10-15-year period dating from today. The conclusions:

• We are looking at a generation-long problem, until 2020 or so; in other words, things will worsen before they improve.

• The weapons and tactics of terrorists will become even more fearsome as they strive to acquire chemical, biological and nuclear devices.

• The next attacks will come; to the extent that we remain vigilant, we will be relatively safer. Inevitably, though, some attacks will succeed.

• Many leaders of the contemporary terrorism wave will fade, including bin Laden, who will die, be killed or lose relevance. Others, some aligned with the founding terrorist gurus, some loosely affiliated with them and some who simply wish to cause trouble will continue to emerge.

• The ranks of hard-core terrorists, their supporters and their sympathizers will swell further.

• The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq will end; if the United States and its allies are successful in creating democratic systems that stand the test of time, the terrorist danger from those places will decrease.

• There are other failed or failing states that could create breeding grounds for terrorism.

• More moderate Muslims will raise their voices in criticism of radical Islam; during the long term, that will work against terrorism.

• The United States and its allies will engage in innovative multilateral strategies to combat terrorism. Those that reach the scourge’s roots will help ease the threat.

• As a result of expanding counter-terrorism education and awareness-building, populations will become more psychologically prepared for terrorist excesses.

Now, at the risk of prematurely jumping to conclusions, the new list contains more than a shred of optimism – along with some genuinely encouraging possibilities.

I am eager to hear readers’ thoughts on this subject. Kindly direct your views to me at jcbersia@johncbersia.com, and I will summarize the results in a future column.