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Will Turkey invade Iraq?

I hope not, although that question incessantly hovers over a deteriorating situation along the border between the two countries. In recent days, clashes involving Turkish troops and a Kurdish extremist group known as the PKK have killed dozens of Turks and militants. Several Turkish soldiers have wound up as hostages.

As bad as that sounds, extensive military action by Ankara will not resolve the crisis. The solution lies in collective action to end a generation of PKK-inspired violence and terrorism.

If the Turks intervene in Iraq, the losers will be Turkey, Iraq’s Kurdistan region, Iraq itself, regional stability and the United States, which counts both Ankara and Baghdad as allies.

The winners will be primarily al-Qaeda and its supporters. The PKK may realize some short-term benefits by widening the conflict, but ultimately it will fail.

How does al-Qaeda factor into this matter?

I suspect that its leaders have become quite enthused about the Turkish-Iraqi border troubles. After all, the Kurdistan area of Iraq – the only region that works well – had appeared largely immune from the chaos afflicting other parts of the country. Al-Qaeda would welcome an addition to Iraq’s turmoil, especially if that development required none of its resources.

Well, others clearly are stepping forward with resources. Last week, the Turkish parliament not surprisingly authorized a military campaign in northern Iraq, leading to endless speculation – encouraged by recent public protests in Turkey demanding blood – about imminent action. Instead, how about allowing cool heads to prevail and terminating al-Qaeda’s entertainment?

First, though, it is necessary to get past the blame game.

Some point the finger at Turkey. Essentially, they argue, Ankara has followed a path of self-interest that blindly pursues the PKK into Iraq and creates an excuse to shake up the semi-autonomous Kurdistan area, which it distrusts. Moreover, critics continue, that behavior is part of a larger policy of selectively defying the United States; Turkey also has been deepening its economic ties to Iran and Russia, and politically seeking common ground with Syria and Hamas.

Others blame Iraq – despite its preoccupation with a civil conflict, state-building and terrorism caused by al-Qaeda and other elements – for not suppressing the PKK. They contend that President Jalal Talabani, himself a Kurd, should have spoken out more forcefully and acted with a greater sense of urgency.

Still others fault Washington, insisting that it should have taken the lead long before now – rather than appearing wide-eyed and poised to jump out of the way – to prevent a confrontation between two key partners.

Perhaps, but the real problem lies with the PKK, which is selfishly destabilizing the entire region with its excesses. Why not, as Talabani has proposed, stop fighting, disarm and shape itself into a political organization?

In the meantime, Iraq has announced that it is taking steps to correct the PKK problem, although the exact nature of those measures is not clear.

Quite frankly, Baghdad should crack down and devote the necessary resources to force the PKK to make a choice: Behave or get out of the country. That includes dismantling the extremists’ camps and detaining the group’s leaders. The United States should support and assist in such efforts.

Having said that, time is limited. If the PKK continues to ignore appeals to cease and desist, Turkey’s self-restraint – which is critical – will crumble.

However, should Turkey control itself, Iraq act decisively and the PKK select a peaceful course, all will come out ahead – and al-Qaeda will be the loser.