You have to wonder what is going on in the minds of Pakistan’s leaders as the Pakistani Taliban seemingly retreat from their defiant occupation of a district dangerously close to the nation’s capital –- a crisis that has left the country and the world on edge.

Are President Asif Ali Zardari and his advisors so confident in their ability to maintain control that they can afford to allow extremists such a bold territorial grab? Or, are they so scared, as some critics contend, that they are powerless to do much beyond talk and posturing?

If it is the former — and I doubt it — then we have little to worry us. If it is the latter, then we should worry. We should really worry. I suspect that the truth lies somewhere in between.

Extremists and their terrorist brethren (indeed, they are often one and the same) prey on unsteady, fearful states that have failed, are failing or find themselves in danger of failing. Certain observers argue that Pakistan either already belongs to that hapless group or is moving rapidly toward membership. Moreover, they contend that Pakistan’s leaders know it, as do the extremists.

If Pakistan’s government should tumble into the hands of extremists, the results would make the takeover of Afghanistan in the 1990s by similar-minded troublemakers, trailed by their al-Qaeda cohorts, appear relatively minor. Pakistan is significantly more important, its population — 176 million and rising — is huge, and it has major military assets, including a small arsenal of nuclear weapons. Enough said. The world would have a nightmare scenario on its hands.

Is such a disastrous future for Pakistan inevitable, though?

Not necessarily, but no one should underestimate the capabilities and persistence of the Pakistani Taliban. In fact, the retreat from the Buner district may be more show than substance; the local buzz is that plenty of the miscreants remain.

In search of answers, I turned to someone who knows the region especially well, Teresita Schaffer, a former U.S. ambassador who currently directs the South Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.

Schaffer acknowledges that Pakistan’s government has been “strangely passive in the current situation. The army has been very reluctant to weigh in, which is understandable in that it would mean potentially shooting Pakistanis — something they do not like to do.” She adds that the U.S. government is doing a lot of cheerleading and presumably exerting some pressure as well. In her mind, that is appropriate. Further, she assumes that American officials are delivering this message not just to the elected government but to the army and the opposition. She adds that the principal opposition party, led by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, could end up in power. Further, Schaffer says, Sharif’s brother has just been restored as chief minister of the powerful Punjab province.

What else to do?

Schaffer recommends that Pakistan’s government focus on the at-risk areas that have not yet seen a big infusion of the Pakistani Taliban. “That is where Sharif’s party becomes particularly important, as part of Punjab is vulnerable,” she maintains.

In addition, Schaffer encourages an emphasis on what one might call a “war of the airwaves.” One of the main assets of the Pakistani Taliban, she explains, is radio broadcasting that spews hard-core propaganda from their stronghold, the valley of Swat. The mainstream media need to give them a run for their money, she suggests, and could if they had a tacit signal from the government to proceed.

I could not agree more. People deserve to hear as much as possible and regularly about the Pakistani Taliban’s rampage in the valley of Swat and elsewhere — from the killing of police officers to the burning of girls’ schools to threats of violence to keep women at home to the embracing of Osama bin Laden.

Surely, that is not the kind of the life that the residents of Buner or most other parts of Pakistan want. Now is the time for the people to speak, for the government to reassert its authority, and for the military to be selectively and decisively sent into action. If they work collectively and consistently, Pakistanis still stand a chance of averting a nightmare scenario.