As negotiations continue to force North Korea to end its dangerously irresponsible nuclear program, the most important player clearly is China. So far, many Americans have been understandably dismayed by Beijing’s apparent reluctance to do more than criticize Pyongyang for its disruptive behavior. But is the Chinese response to the crisis as glove-soft as it appears?

Hardly.

In fact, China has economically sanctioned North Korea more than once since the latter began its nuclear course. Such steps, though, are no longer enough. It is very much the moment of truth for China in terms of its ambitions as a rising global power. The time has come for Beijing to act decisively, draw Pyongyang back from the brink and point it in a different direction.

That effort should include ushering North Korean leader Kim Jong Il into retirement and ending his family’s dynasty. Kim’s quirky, unpredictable nature and knee-jerk willingness to go to the wall over virtually anything might have been tolerable in a different era. Today, though, with nuclear weapons in Pyongyang’s arsenal, such tendencies only spell danger.

Indeed, the incessant chest-beating has turned the relationship between the Chinese and the North Koreans – despite the notion that they are as close as lips and teeth – into more of liability than an asset for Beijing. The testy, frenzied behavior emanating from the North could easily lead to a miscalculation and escalate into a regionally destabilizing war.

Beyond the Korean peninsula, conflict would hit China the hardest. Beijing has every reason to anticipate and fear the prospect of massive fighting and the potential use of nuclear weapons; thousands of North Korean refugees pouring across the border; and — on top of a lingering recession — disrupted economic ties with South Korea and others in East Asia.

Those results would endanger what China cherishes most, a stable environment in which it can maintain its political, economic, military and territorial interests. Quite naturally, then, the Chinese have a strong incentive to conduct their own internal debate as the world ponders how to deal with North Korea. Some observers suggest the choices for Beijing come down to two: maintaining the status quo or distancing itself from Pyongyang.

Actually, both leave open the possibility of future problems. The status quo is precisely what has led to recurrent tensions over the years. It is increasingly difficult to turn a blind eye to North Korea’s excesses, which have wrecked its economy and caused widespread starvation. With the exception of the most ideologically stalwart, many Chinese surely have trouble with the pretense of North Korea’s “progress” during the six decades of Kim family rule. Furthermore, they cannot be pleased with the idea of another Kim in power; some analysts say the need to build national cohesion before officials announce one of Kim’s sons as his successor later this year explains why North Korea is in such an intense froth.

Regarding the second option, as much as some Chinese would like to handle North Korea as one does a guest who has overstayed his welcome, saying farewell and good riddance would carry unacceptable risks. Consider that China’s support is the key to shoring up what is left of North Korea’s economy. Without it, the North’s entire system would soon crumble, with consequences similar to what war would produce.

A better solution lies in China’s shaping of a new political reality for North Korea. Far-fetched? Think again.

Despite its relative isolation, Pyongyang is not immune to impulses for change. On multiple occasions before and after Kim took power, stories of attempted coups floated to the outside world. Early on, those were supposedly led by North Korean generals who found inspiration in reforms that were happening in the former Soviet Union. Starvation possibly provoked other unsuccessful uprisings.

Despite the reported elimination of those responsible, reformist sentiments have not gone away, just as they refused to disappear in China under former paramount leader Mao Zedong. To the world’s surprise, after Mao came Deng Xiaoping, a frequently purged innovator who ended up launching China’s transformation. My guess is that more than a few “North Korean Dengs” are waiting in the wings. The Chinese communists, who managed to implement sweeping reforms without ceding power, have the credentials and influence to spark similar changes in North Korea.

I hope the high-level diplomatic maneuvering achieves its desired outcome. For long-term success in North Korea, however, I would place my bet on a Chinese reform gambit.