The Iranian government’s vicious crackdown on protests during recent celebrations of the country’s revolution — which stymied organizers’ plans — has tempted some analysts to conclude that the opposition is faltering. My sentiments reflect another view that could not disagree more, that of Iranian Nobel laureate Shirin Ebadi. She maintains that the opposition secured a win merely by showing up and that it remains strong.

No matter that crowds were smaller than anticipated, and hobbled by arrests and intimidation. Given the government’s sweeping dragnet, what else was likely? That said, this is not the time to succumb to disappointment and self-doubt, a reaction Iran’s rulers would welcome. Rather, opposition leaders should seize the moment to regroup, strategize and engage in constructive self-criticism. That would enable them to return to the struggle with new ideas and enhanced resolve.

Further, the opposition should draw some satisfaction from the extent of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s extreme heavy-handedness, for it signaled weakness and fear, much as similar tactics did under an earlier government headed by Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the former Shah of Iran.

As Ebadi notes, the full-on repression suggests a regime at the end of its rope, not one that is in control. Clearly, anger, frustration, instability and violence are as pervasive in Iran today as they were under the Shah. They will not fade away. Thus, it is reasonable to suggest that the end of the era of 1979 revolution draws near.

To readers who are eager to know the timeframe, that question is not mine to answer. The decision to proceed with such an event, as well as its timing, belongs to the Iranian people. But we can find hints in every round of clashes and pauses, as each side evaluates the other’s intentions and resiliency.

My contention is that Tehran’s future attempts to contain the opposition — no matter how brutal — will not work. Nor would a return to limited liberalization, should Iran’s leaders opt to move in that direction to try to stem a rising tide of discontent. Rather, such a step would simply open the door to a louder collective outcry.

Unnerved, the government would rush back to its repressive stance. In such a pressure-cooker environment, the opposition would almost inevitably explode. Hundreds of thousands of Iranians would take to the streets, with their number soon swelling to the millions. Eleventh-hour concessions by the government would surely fail.

The tide of discontent would surge, ultimately sweeping Ahmadinejad and his cronies into the obscurity they richly deserve. In the Shah’s period, the final stage occurred between 1976 and 1978. Might we now be witnessing the last two years of the current regime? I hope so, for the sake of Iranians and their dignity. But, again, that choice is theirs.

Our best approach is to exercise a degree of patience, join Ebadi in her belief that the Iranian opposition remains powerful, and wait for the next revolution to unleash its history-changing furor.