Stephen Wayne, the author of a forthcoming book on President Barack Obama, “Personality and Politics: Obama For and Against Himself”, specializes in the American presidency at Georgetown University. He discussed with McClatchy-Tribune foreign-affairs columnist John C. Bersia the Obama administration’s prospects for the next two years.

Q: What did Obama’s 2011 State of the Union address reveal about his short-term and long-term intentions?

A: Obama steered a middle course, but he also indicated the priorities on which he will not compromise: innovation, education and renewable energy. The address was consistent with his 2008 campaign oratory, and it was the first speech of his 2012 re-election campaign. What was missing, though, was a realistic notion of the foreign-policy decisions he will have to make. He lauded the ongoing withdrawal from Iraq and the impending departure from Afghanistan, but he did not discuss the three areas where he thought he would focus in 2008, North Korea, Iran and the Arab-Israeli conflict.

Q: How do you assess Obama’s standing at the mid-term?

A: He is suffering the plight of most presidents who are elected because their predecessors are thought to have done a bad job, for example Ronald Reagan after Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton after George H.W. Bush. At the mid-term, Reagan and Clinton were essentially where Obama is today. However, Obama has had a much more active and successful presidency in legislative terms.

Q: What accounts for his legislative gains?

A: It can be attributed to the overwhelming Democratic majorities on the Hill that stayed with him; the depth and breadth of the recession since, in times of crisis, Congress plays follow the leader; and the fact that he had a very successful transition. However, the legislation has not yet had the desired impact. Unemployment has remained high. The bill to help families save their homes has not been particularly successful. And the recession, despite what certain economists say, is not over for many people.

Q: Is the president not communicating the positive developments well enough?

A: Actually, his public approval has not declined for that reason. As he amply demonstrated in the State of the Union address, he is an excellent communicator. However, he is not warm and fuzzy like Clinton or a good guy to have a beer with like former President George W. Bush. It is simply because he has not had good news to report. His campaign raised expectations to unrealistic heights. Some 87% of people were dissatisfied with the economy, Iraq and other issues. But there was no consensus on how to proceed. The moment Obama started making decisions, people were opposed.

Q: Are there other factors?

A: Yes, one is the fact that even though Obama says he has tried to change politics as usual, he has been singularly unsuccessful in trying to do that. There is another matter that became evident after the stimulus and investment bill. The overall problem is that having a successful activist government in an age of Reagan is not an attribute but a liability. Obama has used the government in a very aggressive way to regulate, to stimulate and, with health care – at least in most people’s minds – to redistribute social resources from the wealthy to the poor. Some regulation that has been proposed has been supported by the public, particularly with respect to Wall Street. But if you look at public polls, most people think government should do less regulating. They have lots of suspicion.

Q: How does the future look, including prospects for 2012?

A: In a certain sense, the future is out of Obama’s hands. He has done what he can and will be able to do to stimulate the economy. In light of such circumstances, I expect him to focus more on foreign policy. Presidents win or lose on the basis of how people perceive conditions and on the extent to which they view the president as responsible. People do not blame Obama for the recession, but they blame him for the lack of a recovery – spending a lot and showing little. That said, I have every expectation that he will run again. He has no serious challengers in the Democratic Party, and he is a great fund-raiser. On the Republican side, a lot of people are thinking about running right now: Newt Gingrich, perhaps Sarah Palin, the unsuccessful from the last round, various governors and a distant possibility – Marco Rubio, the Republican Barack Obama.

Stephen Wayne can be reached at waynes@georgetown.edu.